HJK Helsinki v Motherwell

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Cerny · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
HJK Helsinki win	38%	2.72
Motherwell win	34%	2.83
Draw	28%	3.50

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	53%	1.82
Under	47%	2.10

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Yes	57%	1.67
No	43%	2.20

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over 8.5	54%	1.75
Under 8.5	46%	2.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

How many cards?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over 3.5	50%	1.87
Under 3.5	50%	1.87

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Motherwell win	2.58	2.71	+5.0%
Draw	3.36	3.35	-0.3%
HJK Helsinki win	2.69	2.38	-11.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Bolt Arena