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Inter Turku v FC Vaduz

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Inter Turku win45%2.22
FC Vaduz win29%3.52
Draw26%3.66

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.70
Under44%2.20

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes59%1.62
No41%2.32

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.554%1.75
Over 9.546%2.02

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
FC Vaduz win3.003.20+6.7%
Draw3.503.55+1.4%
Inter Turku win2.222.00-9.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVeritas Stadion