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Brann v Apollon Limassol

← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Kos · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brann win56%1.90
Draw25%4.10
Apollon Limassol win20%5.59

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%2.07
Under48%2.08

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes52%1.91
No48%2.10

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 10.551%1.85
Over 10.549%1.95

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 4.551%1.82
Under 4.549%1.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Apollon Limassol win4.004.90+22.5%
Draw3.463.90+12.6%
Brann win1.861.61-13.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBrann Stadion