← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Umudlu
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Dinamo Tirana win | 52% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
| Aluminij win | 22% | 4.49 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.90 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Yes | 51% | 1.85 |
| No | 49% | 1.96 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 8.5 | 53% | 1.75 |
| Under 8.5 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand