← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Jollenbeck · pens 3–4
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Koper win | 65% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.89 |
| NSI Runavik win | 15% | 7.00 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.54 |
| Under | 39% | 2.49 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Yes | 55% | 1.73 |
| No | 45% | 2.10 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 10.5 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 10.5 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 2 |
| final home goals | 0 |
| qualified | away |
| venue | Bonifika |