← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: V. Thorarinsson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CFR 1907 Cluj win | 58% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.19 |
| Alashkert win | 18% | 5.40 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.21 |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Yes | 54% | 1.77 |
| No | 46% | 2.10 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 9.5 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 9.5 | 45% | 2.05 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 5.5 | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 5.5 | 44% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Dr. Constantin Radulescu |