← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 06:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Sars
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Sion win | 82% | 1.17 |
| Draw | 12% | 10.50 |
| Bate Borisov win | 6% | 19.50 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under | 34% | 2.88 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| No | 60% | 1.62 |
| Yes | 40% | 2.60 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 10.5 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 10.5 | 49% | 1.91 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 4.5 | 52% | 1.76 |
| Under 4.5 | 48% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand