← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Karabaev
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ludogorets win | 52% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.88 |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv win | 23% | 4.45 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.96 |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| No | 48% | 2.00 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 9.5 | 51% | 1.86 |
| Under 9.5 | 49% | 1.94 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 5.5 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Over 5.5 | 50% | 1.88 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand