← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: V. Spasjonnikovs · pens 2–4
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| The New Saints win | 47% | 2.00 |
| Flora Tallinn win | 27% | 3.90 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.74 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.78 |
| Under | 45% | 2.17 |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Yes | 58% | 1.68 |
| No | 42% | 2.25 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 10.5 | 53% | 1.75 |
| Over 10.5 | 47% | 2.01 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 0 |
| final home goals | 1 |
| qualified | away |
| venue | Park Hall |