← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Kringstad
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| IFK Goteborg win | 44% | 2.16 |
| FC Levadia Tallinn win | 31% | 3.21 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.38 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Yes | 62% | 1.53 |
| No | 38% | 2.50 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 10.5 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 10.5 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | EXTRA_TIME |
| final away goals | 3 |
| final home goals | 1 |
| qualified | away |
| venue | A. Le Coq Arena |