β UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 Β· Thu, Jul 30, 04:00 PM UTC Β· ref: N. Verboomen
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| BaΕakΕehir win | 53% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
| Inter Turku win | 21% | 4.90 |
across 13 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.84 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 11 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| No | 47% | 2.10 |
across 10 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 9.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over 9.5 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 7 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand