← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: K. Roucek
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Lugano win | 61% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.39 |
| Dukagjini win | 17% | 6.00 |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Yes | 51% | 1.85 |
| No | 49% | 1.91 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 8.5 | 50% | 1.92 |
| Under 8.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 5.5 | 54% | 1.69 |
| Over 5.5 | 46% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Kampi Nacional Hajvalia |