← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Tue, Jul 28, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: W. Altmann · pens 5–3
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CSKA 1948 win | 51% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
| Spartak Trnava win | 22% | 4.40 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.10 |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| No | 50% | 1.91 |
| Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 8.5 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under 8.5 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 5.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Over 5.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 0 |
| final home goals | 0 |
| qualified | home |
| venue | National Stadium Vasil Levski |