← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Tue, Jul 28, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Kikacheishvili
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Riga win | 67% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.25 |
| Vardar Skopje win | 14% | 8.00 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under | 37% | 2.69 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.20 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 9.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over 9.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 4.5 | 54% | 1.71 |
| Under 4.5 | 46% | 1.97 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | EXTRA_TIME |
| final away goals | 2 |
| final home goals | 5 |
| qualified | home |
| venue | Skonto stadions |