← UEFA Europa Conference League 2026 · Tue, Jul 28, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Zabroda
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Apollon Limassol win | 71% | 1.33 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.67 |
| Dila win | 11% | 9.50 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.31 |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| No | 53% | 1.81 |
| Yes | 47% | 2.01 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 1.87 |
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 1.88 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 1.64 |
| Under 3.5 | 44% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand