Sport Lisboa e Benfica v Hearts

← UEFA Europa League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 07:00 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Sport Lisboa e Benfica win	82%	1.22
Draw	12%	11.10
Hearts win	6%	26.23

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	70%	1.44
Under	30%	3.40

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
No	54%	1.91
Yes	46%	2.25

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Under 10.5	54%	1.73
Over 10.5	46%	2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

How many cards?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over 3.5	58%	1.62
Under 3.5	42%	2.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Hearts win	11.75	18.50	+57.4%
Draw	6.50	9.00	+38.5%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica win	1.19	1.10	-7.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.