FC Thun v Vikingur Reykjavik

← UEFA Europa League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 06:00 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
FC Thun win	67%	1.42
Draw	19%	5.50
Vikingur Reykjavik win	14%	7.41

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	66%	1.44
Under	34%	2.90

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Yes	58%	1.62
No	42%	2.30

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Under 10.5	52%	1.90
Over 10.5	48%	2.02

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Vikingur Reykjavik win	6.50	6.50	0.0%
Draw	4.85	5.00	+3.0%
FC Thun win	1.41	1.37	-2.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Stockhorn Arena