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PAOK v Anderlecht

← UEFA Europa League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 05:45 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
PAOK win52%1.85
Draw26%3.85
Anderlecht win22%5.00

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.95
Over50%1.95

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes52%1.83
No48%2.00

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.551%1.88
Over 9.549%1.92

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 4.554%1.75
Under 4.546%2.02

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Anderlecht win4.204.31+2.7%
Draw3.583.60+0.6%
PAOK win1.801.75-2.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueToumba Stadium