Pafos v Red Bull Salzburg

← UEFA Europa League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 05:00 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Red Bull Salzburg win	56%	1.70
Draw	24%	3.90
Pafos win	19%	4.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	53%	1.80
Under	47%	2.07

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Yes	54%	1.75
No	46%	2.02

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Red Bull Salzburg win	1.70	1.70	0.0%
Draw	3.90	3.90	0.0%
Pafos win	4.90	4.90	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Stelios Kyriakides Stadium