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Lincoln Red Imps FC v Omonia Nicosia

← UEFA Europa League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 04:00 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Omonia Nicosia win62%1.56
Draw22%4.50
Lincoln Red Imps FC win16%6.64

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.71
Under43%2.22

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes53%1.83
No47%2.00

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 8.551%1.90
Under 8.549%2.00

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 4.558%1.62
Over 4.542%2.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Omonia Nicosia win1.461.50+3.1%
Draw4.404.20-4.5%
Lincoln Red Imps FC win6.455.50-14.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVictoria Stadium