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Maccabi Tel Aviv v CSKA Sofia

← UEFA Europa League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 04:00 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Maccabi Tel Aviv win47%2.04
Draw28%3.50
CSKA Sofia win25%3.95

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.88
Over48%2.00

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes53%1.80
No47%2.05

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.555%1.70
Over 9.545%2.10

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 4.557%1.65
Under 4.543%2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
CSKA Sofia win3.673.75+2.0%
Draw3.363.31-1.5%
Maccabi Tel Aviv win1.981.98+0.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBloomfield Stadium