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KuPS v Universitatea Craiova

← UEFA Europa League 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 03:00 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Universitatea Craiova win47%2.06
Draw28%3.52
KuPS win26%3.90

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.92
Over50%1.95

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes54%1.75
No46%2.02

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 8.555%1.76
Under 8.545%2.10

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 4.558%1.62
Over 4.542%2.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Universitatea Craiova win2.001.95-2.5%
Draw3.383.40+0.6%
KuPS win3.623.70+2.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVare Areena