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Ferencvarosi TC v Gornik Zabrze

← UEFA Europa League 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 06:15 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ferencvarosi TC win54%1.85
Draw26%3.95
Gornik Zabrze win21%5.00

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.84
Under48%2.02

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes53%1.80
No47%2.10

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.554%1.77
Under 9.546%2.05

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 4.557%1.59
Over 4.543%2.12

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Gornik Zabrze win4.544.45-2.0%
Draw3.733.64-2.3%
Ferencvarosi TC win1.691.72+1.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGroupama Arena