Larne v Saburtalo

← UEFA Europa League 2026 · Tue, Aug 4, 07:00 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Saburtalo win	40%	2.55
Larne win	30%	3.38
Draw	29%	3.35

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Under	55%	1.77
Over	45%	2.15

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Yes	51%	1.87
No	49%	2.00

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over 8.5	50%	1.87
Under 8.5	50%	1.95

across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Saburtalo win	2.40	2.20	-8.3%
Draw	3.11	3.22	+3.5%
Larne win	2.92	3.17	+8.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Inver Park