← UEFA Europa League 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Bram Van Driessche, Belgium · pens 5–4
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK win | 36% | 2.67 |
| CSKA Sofia win | 35% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.35 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.72 |
| Over | 44% | 2.18 |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Yes | 51% | 1.85 |
| No | 49% | 1.93 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 9 | 51% | 2.02 |
| Under 9 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 1.66 |
| Under 3.5 | 45% | 2.07 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 0 |
| final home goals | 0 |
| qualified | home |
| venue | Vasil Levski National Sports Academy |