← UEFA Europa League 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: Damian Sylwestrzak, Poland
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| PAOK win | 52% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.90 |
| Dynamo Kyiv win | 23% | 4.32 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.18 |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Yes | 56% | 1.68 |
| No | 44% | 2.17 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 9.5 | 53% | 1.79 |
| Over 9.5 | 47% | 2.02 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 4.5 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under 4.5 | 45% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand