← UEFA Europa League 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Paweł Raczkowski, Poland
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Pafos win | 52% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
| HNK Hajduk Split win | 22% | 4.50 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under | 49% | 1.97 |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Yes | 52% | 1.85 |
| No | 48% | 2.00 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 4.5 | 56% | 1.68 |
| Under 4.5 | 44% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | EXTRA_TIME |
| final away goals | 0 |
| final home goals | 2 |
| qualified | home |
| venue | Alphamega Stadium |