← UEFA Europa League 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikkel Redder, Denmark
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Maccabi Tel Aviv win | 70% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.35 |
| Sheriff Tiraspol win | 12% | 9.25 |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.62 |
| Under | 40% | 2.45 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Yes | 50% | 1.90 |
| No | 50% | 1.92 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 9.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over 9.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 3.5 | 51% | 1.80 |
| Under 3.5 | 49% | 1.87 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand