The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win
51%
1.87
Draw
24%
4.00
Greuther Furth win
24%
4.00
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
Outcome
Market says
Best price
FC St. Pauli 1910 −0.75
53%
1.80
Greuther Furth −0.75
47%
2.00
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
59%
1.65
Under
41%
2.40
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
60%
1.57
No
40%
2.55
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
55%
1.70
Under 9.5
45%
2.05
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Greuther Furth win
3.82
4.28
+11.9%
Draw
3.80
3.90
+2.6%
FC St. Pauli 1910 win
1.83
1.74
-5.2%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
0
Half-time score
0
18
Shots
15
6
On target
7
9
Corners
2
4
Fouls
5
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.