The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Magdeburg win
53%
1.80
Draw
24%
3.95
Braunschweig win
22%
4.35
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Braunschweig −0.75
53%
1.80
Magdeburg −0.75
47%
2.00
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
57%
1.67
Under
43%
2.30
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
58%
1.62
No
42%
2.38
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Braunschweig win
4.20
4.33
+3.1%
Draw
3.82
3.80
-0.5%
Magdeburg win
1.75
1.75
0.0%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
0
Half-time score
4
10
Shots
24
3
On target
13
5
Corners
5
14
Fouls
9
4
Yellow cards
1
1
Red cards
0
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.