← Süper Lig 2023 · Sat, Apr 27, 04:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Buyuksehyr win | 39% | 2.53 |
| Hatayspor win | 32% | 3.12 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hatayspor +0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Buyuksehyr +0.25 | 46% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.