← Süper Lig 2022 · Wed, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Buyuksehyr win | 46% | 2.13 |
| Ümraniyespor win | 28% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ümraniyespor −0.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Buyuksehyr −0.5 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.