← Süper Lig 2022 · Tue, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sivasspor win | 49% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.77 |
| Kasimpasa win | 25% | 4.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kasimpasa −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Sivasspor −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.