← Süper Lig 2021 · Mon, May 16, 05:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Galatasaray win | 49% | 1.95 |
| Ad. Demirspor win | 26% | 3.89 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.90 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Galatasaray −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Ad. Demirspor −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.55 |
| Under | 38% | 2.58 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.