← Süper Lig 2021 · Mon, Apr 4, 05:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ad. Demirspor win | 41% | 2.55 |
| Hatayspor win | 32% | 3.24 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ad. Demirspor +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hatayspor +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.