← Süper Lig 2021 · Sat, Apr 2, 05:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Galatasaray win | 57% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 |
| Karagumruk win | 18% | 5.43 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Karagumruk −1 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Galatasaray −1 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.