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Osmanlispor 1–4 Buyuksehyr

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Buyuksehyr win46%2.12
Draw27%3.53
Osmanlispor win27%3.63

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots10
4On target5
6Corners10
13Fouls10
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOsmanlisporBuyuksehyr
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
cards avg (last 5)0.802.40
coach days332.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.372.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.13
dominance (last 5)0.530.46
elo1505.581741.76
elo momentum (last 5)7.7611.35
form points (last 5)5.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.430.92
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.55
league points36.0062.00
league rank20.006.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days0.049.00
scorer concentration0.25—
season ppg1.002.07
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.006.80
squad age29.80—
state index-0.080.71
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40