← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Thu, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa win | 67% | 26% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 24% | 5.17 | value: +25% |
| Trabzonspor win | 14% | 50% | 7.02 | value: +250% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trabzonspor | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 139.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1554.72 | 1559.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.54 | -19.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.01 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 40.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.42 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |