← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Thu, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivasspor win | 48% | 18% | 2.03 | fair |
| Fenerbahce win | 29% | 56% | 3.42 | value: +93% ⚠ |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.16 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sivasspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 231.00 | 353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1514.90 | 1812.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.99 | 7.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 30.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 2.21 |
| state index | 0.07 | 1.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |