← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Wed, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor win | 45% | 43% | 2.19 | fair |
| Mersin Idman Yurdu win | 30% | 32% | 3.26 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mersin Idman Yurdu | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1419.49 | 1574.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.97 | -23.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 21.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.24 |
| state index | -1.66 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |