← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Wed, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor win | 41% | 29% | 2.40 | fair |
| Besiktas win | 33% | 41% | 2.94 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.72 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Konyaspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 595.00 | 352.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1677.75 | 1804.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.39 | 20.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| league points | 63.00 | 79.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 2.39 |
| state index | 0.85 | 1.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |