← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa win | 81% | 56% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 23% | 7.70 | value: +80% |
| Mersin Idman Yurdu win | 6% | 21% | 15.60 | value: +227% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kasimpasa | Mersin Idman Yurdu |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1547.67 | 1431.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.17 | -47.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.66 |
| state index | -0.32 | -1.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |