← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akhisarspor win | 38% | 30% | 2.57 | fair |
| Galatasaray win | 36% | 44% | 2.72 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Akhisarspor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 349.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1579.60 | 1682.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.81 | -20.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 46.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.41 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |