← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivasspor win | 48% | 38% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.67 | value: +7% |
| Genclerbirligi win | 25% | 33% | 3.89 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sivasspor | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 219.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1502.27 | 1598.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.08 | 32.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 26.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |