← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eskisehirspor win | 42% | 30% | 2.32 | fair |
| Gaziantep win | 29% | 41% | 3.33 | value: +38% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gaziantep | Eskisehirspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 6.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1484.74 | 1498.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.06 | 35.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 32.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| state index | -1.33 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |