← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 85% | 71% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 20% | 9.40 | value: +88% |
| Gaziantep win | 4% | 9% | 22.50 | value: +101% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fenerbahce | Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 335.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1818.91 | 1488.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.39 | -44.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 67.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 1.07 |
| state index | 1.28 | -1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |