← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 70% | 66% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | 5.07 | value: +17% |
| Kayserispor win | 11% | 11% | 8.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Besiktas | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 334.00 | 298.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1784.82 | 1510.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.79 | 24.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 70.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.07 |
| state index | 1.05 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |