← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 61% | 50% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.23 | value: +10% |
| Akhisarspor win | 16% | 24% | 6.15 | value: +48% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Akhisarspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 327.00 | 327.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1579.97 | 1788.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.84 | 5.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 43.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 2.38 |
| state index | 0.18 | 1.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |