← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa win | 47% | 50% | 2.09 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.42 | fair |
| Kayserispor win | 25% | 22% | 3.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kasimpasa | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1578.71 | 1485.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.10 | -17.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 43.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 0.93 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.94 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |