← Süper Lig 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 83% | 73% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 18% | 8.25 | value: +50% |
| Mersin Idman Yurdu win | 5% | 9% | 19.10 | value: +77% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fenerbahce | Mersin Idman Yurdu |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 321.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1805.45 | 1464.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.36 | -18.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 61.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 0.75 |
| state index | 0.98 | -0.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |